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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          06/20 11:51

   Traders Continue to Send Livestock Contracts Lower 

   The livestock complex is trading fully lower into Thursday afternoon as the 
market wants to see what this week's cash cattle trade does. Traders need to 
see better pork demand for the hog complex. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst


   Weaker tones have settled into the livestock complex as all three of the 
markets are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour. For the cattle complex, 
traders seem apprehensive about trading the contracts higher ahead of seeing 
what this week's cash market does. For the hog sector, spotty consumer demand 
continues to remain an issue. July corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and July 
soybean meal is down $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 116.02 


   Traders are not so patiently waiting on the week's cash cattle trade to 
develop as they continue to let the contracts drift lower as they wait for bids 
to begin to surface. It's expected cash cattle will trade higher this week, but 
traders and feedlot managers know better than to put the cart before the horse 
and count on that blessing before it actually happens. Asking prices are noted 
in the South at $189 but remain unestablished in the North. No bids are 
currently being offered, which likely means trade will be delayed until Friday. 
June live cattle are up $0.20 at $186.90, August live cattle are down $0.22 at 
$181.90 and October live cattle are down $0.52 at $183.35.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.90 ($322.60) and select up $0.33 
($303.59) with a movement of 58 loads (32.81 loads of choice, 12.50 loads of 
select, 4.36 loads of trim and 8.56 loads of ground beef).


   One would logically think with nearby corn futures trading $0.07 to $0.08 
lower, the feeder cattle market would be trading higher amid such excellent 
feeder cattle demand in the countryside. But traders aren't seeming to approach 
Thursday's market with that attitude as the feeder cattle contracts are 
currently lower. More than anything, Thursday's minor weakness stems from a 
lack of trader confidence. If the cash cattle market were trading higher, or at 
least steady, then I bet we'd be seeing a different theme in the feeder sector. 
But until the cash cattle market trades, cautious tones will likely persist. 
August feeders are down $0.57 at $259.37, September feeders are down $0.45 at 
$260.67 and October feeders are down $0.55 at $261.42. On Friday there will 
also be another Cattle on Feed report released which could be causing traders 
some hesitancy as it usually does. 


   The lean hog complex is again trading lower as traders are desperate to see 
some consistent demand from U.S. consumers. Unfortunately, the day's midday 
carcass price is lower and without knowing just yet how the week's exports are 
going to shake out, traders remain extremely cautious. July lean hogs are down 
$1.52 at $92.25, August lean hogs are down $1.97 at $89.60 and October lean 
hogs are down $1.75 at $76.65. Given that it's been a short holiday week, the 
market's weekly export report will be shared Friday morning.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/19/2024 is down $0.17 at $90.55 and 
the actual index for 6/18/2024 is up $0.13 at $90.72. Hog prices are higher on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.27 with a weighted average price 
$87.27, ranging from $85.00 to $90.00 on 4,238 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $87.70. Pork cutouts total 143.37 loads with 115.21 loads of pork 
cuts and 28.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.24, $96.43.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached


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