DTN Midday Livestock Comments          05/01 11:31

   Technical Pressure Takes Center Stage for Livestock Markets

   Bids of $222 live and $350 dressed are currently being offered in Nebraska 
but there's been no new trade developed following Wednesday's thin movement.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The wins for the livestock complex have been hit or miss this morning as the 
day's export report was helpful for the hog complex. The week's cash cattle 
trade has been extremely supportive, but the cattle contracts are still trading 
lower. No more cash cattle trade has developed following Wednesday's thin 
movement, but more trade will need to develop ahead of the week's end. June 
lean hogs are down $0.35 at $97.925, May corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel 
and May soybean meal is down $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 
313.14 points and NASDAQ is up 394.54 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 12,900 mt for 2025 
were up 25% from the previous week and up 6% from the prior 4-week average. The 
three primary buyers were Japan (4,000 mt), South Korea (3,700 mt) and Mexico 
(1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 34,500 mt for 2025 were up noticeably from the 
previous week and up 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest 
buyers were Mexico (20,000 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   It's been convincing to see the live cattle contracts trade mostly lower 
amid the light trade that took place late Wednesday afternoon, where prices 
traded anywhere from $5.00 to $8.00 higher. If the futures complex was this 
blind to the cash cattle market's rally at any other point in time, cattlemen 
would want to stomp around and throw their hands up in the air. But when you 
look at the futures complex and thoroughly observe the faithful rally that the 
market has successfully supported since early April, one can have more grace 
with traders' technical standstill. After rallying to new contract highs 
earlier this week traders seem to be hitting the pause button letting the 
futures contracts trade merely sideways. Fundamental support has been ample 
already this week.  June live cattle are up $0.52 at $208.92, August live 
cattle are down $0.10 at $203.95 and October live cattle are down $0.35 at 
$201.60. Some more cash cattle trade will likely take place later this 
afternoon, as currently there's already one bid on the table at $222 live in 
Nebraska, and $350 dressed in Nebraska. But no more trade has developed at this 
point.

   Late Wednesday afternoon there was some light trade that developed in the 
North at $340 to mostly $350, which is $8.00 higher than last week's weighted 
average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $218 which is $5.00 to $6.00 
higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices remain firm in the 
South at $219 plus, and at $352 plus in the North.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.57 ($342.74) and select up $2.52 
($324.54) with a movement of 71 loads (48.23 loads of choice, 8.02 loads of 
select, 7.88 loads of trim and 7.28 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex is feeling the same technical pressure the live 
cattle contracts are -- as all its contracts are trading lower as well. May 
feeders are down $0.25 at $292.32, August feeders are down $1.67 at $293.35 and 
September feeders are down $1.67 at $292.12. As the market seems to be showing 
that it's finding some technical pressure, it's likely feeder cattle prices 
will still be able to remain strong, despite what the board is doing, given 
that we are only weeks away from turn out season to grass, and that supplies 
are so thin.

LEAN HOGS:

   It's been a challenging morning for the lean hog complex as traders have 
just fully accepted the morning's positive export report and now feel 
comfortable advancing the contracts again. June lean hogs are up $0.20 at 
$98.47, July lean hogs are up $0.40 at $99.00 and August lean hogs are up $0.47 
at $97.62. Pork cutout values are slightly higher too, which could lend a 
little additional support. But more than anything, traders simply cannot deny 
the strong export report the market received this morning. The contracts aren't 
up against immediate resistance pressure anymore, which is allowing for some 
minor upward trading.

   The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are 
lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.85 with a weighted 
average price of $92.44, ranging from $86.00 to $95.00 on 4,780 head and a 
five-day rolling average of $92.68. Pork cutouts total 127.40 loads with 109.34 
loads of pork cuts and 18.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.15, 
$96.76.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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